By now, I’m sure you’ve read enough about Apple’s new iPod Nano, Motorola’s iTunes-based ROKR phone, and the new iTunes. If not, my colleagues over at Macworld have some of the most in-depth coverage around. But consider this: over the last few months, we’ve seen pundits predict that the public will cool to iPod while iTunes market share drops and the music industry ends its honeymoon with Apple.
Oops. If you want to see the single company that will dominate the music industry, and how music is marketed and sold, it’s clearly going to be Apple. Just how wrong are the Pod critics? Let us count the ways:
iPod Dominance Will Continue: The Nano is stunning, and Apple has quietly rolled out low-price, high-volume models and (other than Shuffle) product line-wide color. Meanwhile, the competition continues to hawk absurdly ugly, clunky models. iPod isn’t repeating Walkman history; people associate the brand name with one product alone — Apple’s. Meanwhile, Sony is ready to take on Apple with models that are clunkier, have monochrome screens, and cost more. Oh, and it won’t be shipping for months, by which point Apple will already be firmly entrenched. (See Gizmodo.
iTunes songs “play for sure” anywhere: Microsoft has been pushing a choice of devices for Windows Media, as part of its “plays for sure” campaign. Only problem — Windows Media doesn’t play on any of the devices people want. The Motorola ROKR is a pretty boring-looking phone, but the integration with iTunes is the best yet, and you can bet other phones will follow. (Including, most likely, a sexier phone like the RAZR running iTunes.) But that wasn’t the only announcement yesterday — check out the new iPod car integration from major makers.
The music industry looks plenty cosy: iTunes music sales still pale in comparison to overall music sales, but for cool factor, it can’t be beat. The problem is, no one but Apple has nailed the interface — or sells songs so they’ll play on the iPod, the main reason people are buying. I’ve been stunned how even novice, Windows-only users immediately get the iTunes Music Store. Oh yeah, and now you can buy Harry Potter and Madonna.
Bottom line? Apple is going to remain the most influential tech company on the music industry. And all of us are going to want a Nano for Christmas. Now if only it could record high-quality audio . . . MicroTrack, anybody?
The biggest strike against Apple is that iPods are everywhere. A couple of thoughts:
1. A time will come in the not-to-distant future when the market is saturated. Sales will drop and the fashion cachet will be lost.
2. iPod-like functionality will soon be built into every phone. A few will be built in partnership with Apple, but most will be designed by phone manufacturers.
That said, the iPod phenomenon will have several good years before it burns out, but we'restanding close to the top of the adoption curve. Such is tech fashion.
Why why why why didn't they get Jonathan Ive to design a phone?
1. Apple will continue to revamp the design and implementation – and feature set of the iPod, thereby encouraging existing users to upgrade and holdouts to adopt. They've held the market as long as there has been one (for MP3 players) – and they've held it against the best of the best in the industry.
2. And as iPod-like functionality is built into phones, Apple will continue partner with manufacturers, and will likely develop new applications and even devices to extend their portable market. People have been saying that the iPod market is near its end since its inception. And they've been saying Macs are near their end for years as well.
I have yet to see any of those predictions come true. On the contrary, Apple continues to defy even the most prophetic critics.
I read the other day that less than 4% of the US population owns an mp3 player. If that statistic is correct, Apple has a long way to go before the market saturates.
Meanwhile, Apple isn't sitting on its laurels. Look at how the iPod market has changed in 4 years. There are iPods selling to size geeks – 60 gig and climbing! There are iPods selling to the money conscious and now a whizz bang new device that's right in the middle.
Just consider how the increasing capacity has changed the mp3 market. 128 KBs was considered a large rip once upon a time but today at the highest levels even people with sensitive ears cannot tell the difference between a rip and the original.
This simple fact opens the iPod to an entirely new market. Many people, as I have already done, will be replacing their CD players and CD changers with iPods.
Convergence has been the claim for more years than I want to count. Face it, the Rube Goldberg device may play for a few gadget geeks but it isn't for the likes of most people. The simplicity of the iPod is one of its largest selling points. An mp3 playing phone? Simple? I think not. Besides, before anyone takes a phone/mp3 combo seriously, the battery will have to be mucho improved.
Manufacturers have always craved the best of both worlds – a limited item with cachet (high margins and buzz) but invariable that cachet is lost as that item goes mainstream/ mass market but Apple stumbled into the world's first mass customization item so that 98% of ipod buyers feels like they own something unique – starting with a playlist that is the soundtrack to their life to the thousands of accessories. And because it feels unique and personal, 98% of people feel like they have a one-of-a-kind item – a feeling that is rare to achieve unless you're talking a $10k diamond or something high valued. THe price of entry is only $99. Sure, there are 2% of the people who always think everyone is stupid and only they are smart enough not to fall for hype – those people have serious issues to deal with un-realted to the usefulness of an ipod. If you question the validity of the ipod nano, jsut look at the "new" sOny walkman player introduced ON THE EXACT SAME DAY. Their big selling point, it will shuffle songs for you from the same year! Holy crap – literally! First, how many people pick songs by year? How many actually put the year of their track either manually or via CDDB? The competition is clueless.